Introduction
In today’s rapidly changing world, where global leadership structures are evolving, new centers of influence are emerging, and growing uncertainties are reshaping international relations, one small Central Asian country, formerly part of the Soviet Union, chose nearly thirty years ago to follow a path of neutrality, and has consistently upheld this course ever since. Turkmenistan requested the UN General Assembly to be recognized as a neutral country in the early years of its independence. The 50th UN General Assembly granted the status of Neutrality to Turkmenistan in the 50th Session on 12 December 1995.[1] Since then, neutrality has been the essence of Turkmenistan’s policy both domestic and foreign. Furthermore, on 7 of April 2022 Turkmenistan has initiated the establishment of the Group of Friends of Neutrality for Peace, Security and Sustainable Development[2] aimed “at practical use of peace keeping potential of states building on their naturality policies”. The Group has about 30 UN member states. In March 2025 the United Nations General Assembly adopted the Resolution “Permanent Neutrality of Turkmenistan” by consensus of all Members[3], under Agenda item 61 “Peacebuilding and Peacekeeping”, thereby reaffirming for the third time the status of Turkmenistan’s permanent neutrality – following the original resolution of 12 December 1995 and its reaffirmation on 3 June 2015. Likewise, The General Assembly of the UN welcomed the decision of the Turkmen Government to host an International Forum dedicated to International Day of Neutrality and 30th Anniversary of Neutrality of Turkmenistan in December 2025.[4]
Turkmenistan is the only country (in the entire former Soviet Union region and globally) who adopted the neutrality status in recent history. Thus, December this year Turkmenistan is celebrating 30th anniversary of its neutrality. This is right time to summarize how Turkmenistan, has evolved, and where it stands in terms of sovereignty, security, and economic development since its independence.
Turkmenistan in Brief
Turkmenistan is a land locked country located in Central Asia with no access to world sea transportation routes. Turkmenistan counts number fourth in natural gas resources worldwide[5] and is surrounded by rich in oil and natural gas resources countries like Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran and fellow Central Asian countries, thus its competitors. Turkmenistan heavily depends on its neighbors in terms of natural gas and other commodities export -import operations. Furthermore, Turkmenistan shares a border of over 800 kilometers with conflict-affected Afghanistan.
I first visited Turkmenistan in October 2009 to Attend the Annual Oil and Gas conference held in the capital city of Ashgabat. Since then, for ten years, I used to come to the country once or twice a year to attend international energy conferences. These were the years of great expectations for Turkmenistan to become a reliable source of diversification of natural gas supply to the EU. And expectations for Georgia, South Caucasus, to become a major transport route for Turkmen gas, crude oil and oil products to the EU. Each year, notable new developments have been observed in Turkmenistan, particularly in the capital city, Ashgabat: shape urban design, new magnificent official buildings and cozy residential blocks, new wide streets and roads, all well maintained and plunged in flowersIt raised the question of how wise, flexible, and agile a government must be to maintain peace, stability, and development in a country sharing a border with Afghanistan. The country which has undergone the Soviet invasion and decades of civil war, twenty years of NATO military forces presence on its soil and the Taliban rule. Furthermore, the Turkmen minorities in Afghanistan represent about 3% of the population and have been living along the Turkmenistan -Afghanistan border in five provinces Badghis, Balkh, Faryab, Herat, and Jowzjan.[6] Despite such a complex neighborhood, Turkmenistan has succeeded in maintaining internal stability, peace, and security since gaining independence. Furthermore, Turkmenistan continues maintaining good neighborly relations with all its neighbors including Afghanistan and remains its major power and oil products supplier.
Turkmenistan – NATO: the case of a swift cooperation
Turkmenistan maintained relatively less intensity relations with NATO during the NATO operations in Afghanistan in 2001-2021 years. Based on its neutrality status, Turkmenistan didn’t dispatch armed forces units to NATO-led operations and didn’t host military bases of foreign countries on its territory. However, Turkmenistan, within the framework of its neutrality and partnership dialogue with NATO, contributed to the humanitarian and logistical efforts related to Afghanistan, including by facilitating the transit of humanitarian cargo and allowing the use of its airspace for civilian and humanitarian flights during the period of NATO operations in Afghanistan.[7]
Furthermore, Turkmenistan committed to its neutrality status didn’t join any security or defense organization including the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) led by Russia, where the majority of Central Asian countries belong. In this context, peace and stability depended solely on the decisions and capacities of the governing authorities.
Afghanistan is not just a neighbor for Turkmenistan. In the old times of Khalifate both countries had been parts of a wider realm of Turan. They, together with other Tural realm countries served as a trade bridge between south east Asia (China) and Khalifate, and later, the East Mediterranean and the Byzantine empire. Would they play the same bridge in the XXI century? This time energy and other commodities bridge between China, Central Asia and the West? There are chances as Georgia and South Caucasus are integral and important parts of such developments including the Middle Corridor.
Successful Energy and Transport Diplomacy
Turkmen authorities have managed regional and international energy politics with a strategic approach. Driven by the urgent need to overcome limitations imposed by geography and geopolitical uncertainties (no access to open sea Transportation and overdependence on neighbors in terms of access to transportation networks and export-import operations), Turkmenistan, in close cooperation with the UN, has initiated a number of international events dedicated to strengthening ties between all modes of transport (including and especially gas transportation systems) to achieve sustainable development goals. The first UN Global conference on Sustainable Transport was held in Ashgabat in 2016[8], that was upheld a few years later in Summer 2023, by the international Meeting of Ministers of Transport of Landlocked Developing Countries[9].
On 7 December 2007 the UN Centre of Preventive Diplomacy in Central Asia was established in Ashgabat[10], that is undoubtedly a great achievement of the Turkmen diplomacy. The Centre of Preventive Diplomacy in Central Asia serves as a platform to assist and support the five Central Asia countries- Kazakhstan, Kirgizstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, in developing their conflict prevention instruments and policy. in addition to remoteness of open sea transportation routes nations of Central Asia are subject to water scarcity that need to be delt with engagement of all equally. This is where the Centre of Preventive Diplomacy can play a crucial role.
On 14 September of 2023 at the fifth Consultative Meeting of Heads of States of Central Asia President of Turkmenistan Serdar Berdimuhamedov initiated the Energy Dialogue of Central Asian countries[11]. President Berdimuhamedov emphasized that Turkmenistan is ready to supply its natural gas and electricity to its neighbors in Central Asia on mutually beneficial terms and called on to establish long term energy cooperation within the region. President Berdimuhamesdov’s Energy Dialogue initiative was upheld by the energy ministers of Central Asian countries in their meeting in Astana on 8 of August 2024.[12] Thus, Turkmenistan has initiated and become a driving force for cooperation in energy and transportation and preventive diplomacy in Central Asia.
Efforts to Diversify Energy Markets and Transit Routes
As it was mentioned above Turkmenistan possesses huge gas reserves and ranks as number four worldwide. However, Turkmenistan is a landlocked country with no access to open sea transportation routes. Furthermore, Turkmenistan is surrounded by energy rich countries, thus its competitors, and depends on them in terms of transport routes and the access to export markets.
It is true Turkmenistan inherited a well-developed gas pipeline network linking it with Kazakhstan, Russia and other post-soviet countries and Europe. However, due to strong competition with Russia for gas exports to the west, Turkmenistan could use the gas network only partially, often pending on Russia’s gas export needs. Then the Turkmen authorities found a rational solution through the building of two gas pipelines to Iran[13] and three parallel gas pipelines to China[14]. In 2021 Turkmenistan has become number one gas supplier to China ahead of Russia.[15]
When the Nabucco extra large gas pipeline project (meant for delivering 30 bcm of Turkmen gas from Turkmen border through the South Caucasus Gas Corridor to Check-German border), definitely failed in 2012[16], Turkmenistan didn’t abandon attempts to supply gas to the EU. Instead, Turkmenistan initiated an energy dialogue with the EU aimed at exploring practical cooperation in this direction. In 2024, at the initiative of Turkmenistan, a Working Group between the European Union and Turkmenistan on Energy Cooperation was established, and its first round of meetings was held in Brussels.[17] The agenda of this mechanism includes discussions on the possibility of exporting Turkmen gas to Europe, as well as cooperation on clean and renewable energy sources and methane emissions reduction.
Here also, we have to underline the fact that in 2016 Turkmenistan completed the East -West main gas pipeline linking the gas rich provinces in the east of the country to the Turkmen border on the Caspian Sea.[18] The East -West gas pipeline allows to deliver 30 bcm per annum gas to the west of the country potentially further shipping it towards the EU. However, this option has been on hold ever since 2016 pending on, among others, green transition targets adopted in 2019 and the absence of a long-term gas consumption strategy in the EU.[19]The recent decision of the EU authorities to cease receiving Russian gas by 2027, offers new window of opportunities to Turkmenistan to export its gas to the EU.
In 2015 Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan initiated TAPI gas pipeline project[20] aimed to transport 33 bcm per annum Turkmen gas to energy thirsty countries- Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. Turkmenistan applied immense efforts to build it, the pipeline section within Turkmenistan is competed, the section in Afghanistan’s Herat region is expected to be completed by the end of 2025. Instability in Afghanistan hindered the building of the Afghan section of the pipeline and further sections in Pakistan and India. Current stability trends in Afghanistan provide grounds for hopes that the TAPI pipeline will finally be built.
In the meantime, Turkmenistan keeps on diversifying its gas export markets within the region. Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Iran have signed a gas swap agreement in 2017[21], since then the Turkmen gas has been delivered to the Caucasus. Further, On October 22, 2024 Turkmenistan and Iraq have signed a gas supply agreement providing for exporting 20 bcm pa of Turkmen gas to Iraq through Iran.[22] Turkmenistan and Iran have signed a separate agreement on swap of gas to facilitate the deal. On February 12 of 2025 Turkmenistan and Türkiye have signed an agreement on 2 bcm of Turkmen gas supply, that started on 7th of March 2025,[23] and which is in line with Turkey’s intention to become a gas hub in the coming years. Larger volumes of Turkmen gas could be exported to the EU if existing Iran-Turkey pipeline expended.
Priorities of Domestic Legislation
Petroleum Law
Energy sector of Turkmenistan is governed by Petroleum Law (Law on Hydrocarbon Resources)[24] which establishes that resources within Turkmenistan’s jurisdiction, including its offshore Caspian sector, are under the national government’s control and subject to its laws and licensing. Foreign investors are entitled to participate through Production Sharing Contracts (PSAs) in the offshore, while on the onshore only service contracts are allowed. All contracts are subject to presidential approval and require adherence to Turkmen legal frameworks.
Trade in Turkmenistan is governed by the Commercial Law (of Turkmenistan) that provides for the Arbitration Court. The Arbitration Court allows to try 13 categories of disputes, both pre-contractual and post -contractual, including taxation, legal foundations and bankruptcy issues.[25]
Commodities Exchange
The State Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange of Turkmenistan was established on July 29, 1994 in accordance with the Resolution of the President of Turkmenistan. Main commodities traded include products of: the petrochemical industry, light industry, mechanical engineering, agriculture and the building materials. Trade at the commodities exchange is carried out by local brokerage companies. [26]
FDI – Public Investment Priority
The Turkmen authorities prioritize public investments over private investments. According to WB open data FDI in Turkmenistan picked in 2010 and started coming down ever since due to increased income the country received from gas exports to China and other export sources. In 2023 Turkmenistan received $ 1.38 billion FDI in 2023, a 47.25% increase from 2022. FDI represent about 20% of total while public sector remains the main source of investments.[27]
Oil, gas and construction are the main fields of investments. The current legislation allows FDI and PSA contracts only in the offshore oil and gas sector, while the onshore gas is subject to service contracts and public funding. China, Russia, Japan, Korea, Turkiye, UAE are the main investors of Turkmenistan.
Local Content Requirement
The Turkmen authorities have been very strict in defending the Turkmen workers’ rights. According to Turkmen legislation local content must make up 90% of the workforce of foreign companies, at least 30% for those operating in oi and gas sector.[28]
Priority of Exporting Final Products
The Turkmen authorities having encountered continued persistent obstacles in terms of acceding to existing or building new energy pipelines decided to prioritize exports of final products rather than raw oil and gas. Products shipment doesn’t necessarily require the building of pipelines; they can be transported by ships or railway or lorry cisterns and carriages. So, in September 2018 Turkmenistan launched a 1,5 bln nitrogen fertilizers plant on its Caspian coast, seeking to diversify exports dominated by natural gas. The plant was built by Japan’s Mitsubishi Corp and Turkey’s Insaat in cooperation of with the Ministry of Heavy Industries and produces 1.155 mln tons of urea using natural gas as feedstock and exports most of its output.
In 2018 a $3,4 bln gas chemical complex was launched in Kiyalny with annual output of 386 000 tons of polyethylene and 81 000 tons of polypropylene using 5 bcm of natural gas PA.[29]
In June 2019 Turkmenistan launched a 1,7 billion gas-to-gasoline plant in Ovadendepe, Ahal province, designed to process 1,785 bcm of natural gas PA into 600 00 of 92 gasoline per year. The country plans to build new Gas to Liquids plants in the coming years.[30]
There are two oil refineries in Turkmenistan in Turkmenbashy and Seidi producing wide range of oil products exported to Russia, China, Iran, Afghanistan, Türkiye, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Japan. Turkmenistan has announced plans to increase the country’s refining capacity by 95% by 2030.
Recently, in April 2025 during President Berdimuhamedov’s visit to Japan and South Korea, Turkmenistan’s state-owned chemical company Turkmenhimiya concluded two framework agreements. The first agreement worth of $700 mln was signed with Daewoo Engineering provides for construction of a phosphate fertilizers plant with 300 000 tons of PA designed output capacity by 2029.[31]
The second framework agreement Turkmenhimiya signed with a consortium including Mitsubishi heavy Industries, LTD. (Japan), Gap Insaat Yatirim ve Sish Ticaret A.Sh.(Turkey) and Mitsubishi corporation on hand construction of a plant with an annual output of 1.155 mln tons of urea.[32]
Good Economic Performance and Diversified Trade Surplus
Turkmenistan with a population of over 7 million is an upper middle-income country, one of the most developed in the entire FSU countries behind Russia and Kazakhstan. In 2024, the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exceeded USD 68.7 billion, marking a 6.3% increase compared to the previous year. The foreign trade turnover reached USD 19.8 billion, including USD 12.1 billion in exports and USD 7.7 billion in imports. Turkmenistan’s Gross National Income (GNI) amounted to USD 144.8 billion (PPP), with a per capita income of USD 11,927.7.
Among Turkmenistan’s key economic strengths are a low level of public debt, a significant fiscal stability fund 11% of GDP and a welfare fund 56% of GDP.
Georgia-Turkmenistan Cooperation
Georgia and Turkmenistan are close partners in the Middle Corridor project, and maintain close cooperative contacts for further development of the Black Sea-Caspian Sea transport and transit initiative, which plays a significant role in enhancing regional connectivity.
The Turkmen oil has been transported through Baku/Tbilisi/Ceihan oil pipeline for years; the Turkmen gas has already reached the South Caucasus through swap operations. The Turkmen oil and gas products have been shipped through Georgian railway. Turkmenistan possesses a fertilizers terminal at the Georgian Black Sea Port of Poti. Given current market conditions in the EU expectations and prospects for Turkmen energy and commodities in this market remain highly promising.
Summary
Three decades after declaring permanent neutrality, Turkmenistan has demonstrated that its strategic model – anchored in non-alignment, sovereign decision-making, and economic pragmatism – has enabled the country to navigate a challenging geopolitical landscape. Despite the constraints of geography, dependence on neighbors, and the instability of Afghanistan, Turkmenistan has preserved internal security while pursuing ambitious energy diplomacy, transport connectivity, and selective diversification of export markets. By combining neutrality with proactive initiatives – such as the Central Asia Energy Dialogue, UN-led preventive diplomacy, and partnerships that expand gas infrastructure and value-added production – Turkmenistan has positioned itself as a pragmatic and increasingly influential actor in Eurasia. As Europe reassesses long-term energy security and regional connectivity gains strategic importance, Turkmenistan’s balanced policy and evolving export strategy may open new opportunities that reinforce its status as a neutral state shaping rather than reacting to regional developments.
[1] https://info.publicintelligence.net/MCIA-AfghanCultures/Turkmen.pdf
[2] https://www.mfa.gov.tm/index.php/en/articles/562
[3] https://docs.un.org/A/RES/79/274
[4] https://un.mission.gov.tm/news/130461
[5] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-turkmenistan-development-partnership-summary/uk-turkmenistan-development-partnership-summary-march-2024
[7] https://eurasianet.org/turkmenistan-ashgabat-opens-airspace-to-us-and-nato-supply-flights-to-afghanistan
[8] https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/Global-Sustainable-Transport-Conference-2016
[9] https://www.un.org/ohrlls/sites/www.un.org.ohrlls/files/turkmenistan-lldcs_ministers_meeting_2022.pdf
[10] https://dppa.un.org/en/mission/unrcca
[11] https://caspianbarrel.org/en/2023/09/the-president-of-turkmenistan-proposed-creating-an-energy-dialogue-of-central-asian-countries/
[12] https://astanatimes.com/2024/08/powering-up-central-asian-states-commit-to-energy-cooperation-and-innovation/
[13] Daulegtabad -Sarakhs -Khangiran gas pipeline of 12 bcm PA capacity was launched in January 2010 and a second gas pipeline in November 2010 bringing up annual capacity to 20bcm PA.
[14] Turkmenistan and China completed three parallel gas pipelines in 2009, 2010 and 2012 ears of 55 bcm total capacity.
[15]https://novastan.org/en/turkmenistan/turkmenistan-became-chinas-first-gas-supplier/
[16] https://fiia.fi/en/publication/the-southern-gas-corridor
[17] https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/turkmenistan-23rd-meeting-joint-committee-eu-held-brussel_en
[18] https://romania.tmembassy.gov.tm/news/20565
[19] https://reform-support.ec.europa.eu/what-we-do/green-transition
[20] https://www.eurasian-research.org/publication/energy-policies-of-turkmenistan-importance-and-perspectives-of-tapi-natural-gas-pipeline/
[21] https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/iran-turkmenistan-azerbaijan-sign-gas-swap-deal-2021-11-28/
[22] https://www.upstreamonline.com/energy-security/turkmenistan-signs-iraq-gas-supply-agreement/2-1-1728059
[23] https://jamestown.org/program/turkiye-turkmenistan-gas-deal-opens-possibilities-for-new-routes/
[24] https://faolex.fao.org/docs/pdf/tuk41974.pdf
[25] https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/turkmenistan-trade-barriers
[26] https://jp-tr.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/04Birzha.pdf
[27] https://www.lloydsbanktrade.com/en/market-potential/turkmenistan/investing?vider_sticky=oui
[28] https://www.lloydsbanktrade.com/en/market-potential/turkmenistan/investing?vider_sticky=oui
[29] https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/turkmenistan-oil-and-natural-gas-refining
[30] https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/turkmenistan-oil-and-natural-gas-refining
[31]https://caspianpost.com/turkmenistan/daewoo-engineering-construction-co-signs-deal-to-construct-fertilizer-plant-in-turkmenistan
[32] https://globuc.com/news/turkmenistan-balkan-velayat/
