Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader since 1989, was killed in a joint Israeli-Americal operation on February 28. Given the Ayatollah’s age – and according to the news outlets – illness, the question of succession had been on the table for years. The 88-member Assembly of Experts elected his successor shortly after his death: his son, Mojtaba Khamenei. However, this raised many further questions. Among others, where is Iran headed? What future awaits the regime? Where is the IRGC’s role in this old-new system? Where is Mojtaba Khamenei? And most importantly, what is America doing about it?
Now, about Mojtaba. For years, his role within the leadership has been contested. Some say, he had considerable influence behind what’s going on in Iran, others, that his low profile was true to reality. What is true though, that the 56-years old leader has never held government office, but his name was known by all. Also, in the last few days, multiple reports came out stating, the deceased Khamenei did not think his son was capable of ensuring the stability and guard the Islamic Republic.
The decision on his succession is controversial on at least two points: first, the Islamic Revolution’s ideology is merely based on the supremacy of the leader, depending on his religious standing and proven leadership. Hereditary succession is therefore a problem, and Khamenei’s stance is not unique in this area, as several significant figures have also been listed among the candidates. Second, what the President of the United States wants. “I am not going through this to end up with another Khamenei…They can select, but we have to make sure it’s somebody that’s reasonable to the United States” Trump said about the new leader earlier last week.
Further international reactions were much more subdued. Highlighting some, but not all, Armenia and Azerbaijan have both congratulated Mojtaba Khamenei on his appointment as Iran’s Supreme Leader, signaling their effort to maintain a careful geopolitical balance. Another issue is the Georgian standpoint. The Caucasian country’s prime minister sent a congratulatory letter to Tehran, which has provoked much criticism. Georgia’s ruling Party has faced domestic and international criticism over its ties with Iran lately. Many experts have warned that there is a “risk of growing influence of Iran” in Georgia. However, the most critical voice on this issue is undoubtedly Israel. Israel’s Embassy in Tbilisi stated that true friendships are tested not only through words but also in difficult moments. The embassy condemned Iran as a source of terrorism against Israel and stressed that genuine partnership requires clearly distinguishing between those who support stability and cooperation and those who promote extremism and violence. Among the neighboring Central Asian region, only Tajikistan offered congratulations to the new Supreme Leader. It comes with no surprise, since Tajikistan shares close cultural and linguistic ties with the Persian country. Oman’s sultan also expressed his best wishes of success to Mojtaba Khamenei in assuming his leadership responsibilities in Iran – the usual attitude on the part of Oman towards its neighbor, even though the attacks against its territory.
Russia’s president also congratulated Iran’s new leader and offered his “unwavering support”. There’s nothing new under the sun, the two countries’ supportive relations go further back in decades. Putin also added that he is confident that Mojtaba will continue his father’s work with honor and consolidate the Iranian people in the face of harsh ordeals. Just a few days ago, Iran’s Foreign Minister confirmed at a press event that Iran has good cooperation with Russia (and China) – politically, economically and militarily. This cooperation is an important strategic basis for determining how long Iran can sustain the war with Israel and America.
Problematic, however, the fact is that the public has not seen the new leader since he was elected. Communication is only made through statements or through intermediaries. There are more and more reports that he is dead, has fled to Moscow, or is (only) seriously injured. The latter is not surprising, given that he lost his closest family members in the attacks.
Regardless the injuries were confirmed by Tehran’s ambassador to Cyprus, at the same time, the idea that the leader is dead and the announcement of his identity is just a diversion is becoming increasingly popular. Well, this will probably be revealed soon. We are reaching a very important turning point this week, as Nowruz is coming. The leader’s actions could be crucial for maintaining the achievements of the Islamic revolution, regime stability, and social perception. Because we must not forget that one of the important starting points of the current crisis is social dissatisfaction with the economic situation. We’ll see what the new year brings, but one thing is certain: this protracted conflict will leave another significant mark on the Iranian economy, which has been burdened for decades.
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